Holiday Havoc 2024: Strategic Considerations for This Year’s Rush

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All right, welcome to today’s webinar, Holiday Havoc 2024, strategic
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considerations for this year’s Rush. Uh, my name is Eli. I’m on the marketing
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team here at Sift. And before we dive in, I just want to start with some quick
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housekeeping items. Uh, this webinar is being recorded. It will be made
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available to all registrants and attendees later this week. Uh, we know
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you probably have questions for our speakers, so we reserve some time at the
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end for Q&A, and you can submit your questions throughout the webinar by
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using the Q&A button. We’ll try to answer as many questions as we can live,
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but if we don’t get to your questions here, we’ll be sure to follow up with
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you directly after the webinar. Before we kick things off, I’d like to
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invite you to answer a quick poll question, and we’ll discuss the results
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later in the webinar. So, I’ll share that poll with you.
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The question is which holiday fraud methods are top of mind for you slash
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your organization? Uh options are payment fraud, gift cards such as
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digital physical ones, policy abuse such as refunds and returns, fraud
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chargebacks, and firstparty chargebacks. So go ahead and uh click your answers
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there for the question. Give another minute or so for everyone
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to click their answer and then perhaps while folks are filling
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that out I can move ahead and do some slight introduction. So, um, good
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morning, good afternoon, good evening, folks. Um, my name is Kevin. I lead our
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trust and safety architect team here at Sift. I also oversee all of our customer
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experience teams. It’s a pleasure to talk to you today. Um, we’re talking
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about something that’s very near and dear to my heart um around preparations
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for the holidays. For many, many businesses, this is their Super Bowl.
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This is the thing that they have prepped three quarters for um and now they’re
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entering that zone. uh it can be an exciting time for a business. Frankly,
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they call it Black Friday for a reason. So throughout the year, you might be
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operating in the red and this this kind of short sprint time is when a lot of
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these businesses make it to the black. Um and that’s exciting as well. Um there
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are of course fraud considerations to look over as well, which is why that we
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wanted uh to talk about this topic. So um if you’re uh not familiar with SIFT,
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we are a fraud and fraud and trust and safety platform that helps businesses
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protect themselves. uh and their consumers against various forms of
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online abuse. And we do it um through mechanical advantage ways via AI and
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machine learning. And so uh it’s a pleasure to be with you today. And I’ll
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pass the mic over to my colleague Alexander.
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Thank you Kevin. Hey everybody. Thank you for taking the time to be here. Uh
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my name is Alexander Hall and I’m a trust and safety architect at Syft. I
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have 17 years of fraud related experience. 10 of those years were spent
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operating as a fraudster where I identified vulnerabilities and authored
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new methods. In 2017, I made the shift from dark to light. And uh since then,
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I’ve been working with financial institutions, merchants, marketplaces to
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help them uh define and refine their fraud strategies overall. And then
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earlier this year, I have the great I had the great honor of joining the SIFT
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team as a trust and safe architect. Extremely excited to be here. Uh we’ve
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got a lot of great great insight coming for you in this webinar. So thank you
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again for being here. Uh let’s have some fun.
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>> All right. So in terms of top of mind for us, here’s the kind of the main
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points that we want to get across to make sure that you and your team are set
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up for success as we enter in this holiday period. So we definitely talk
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about departmental considerations as you go into the
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holiday season. look at the big picture here in terms of
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what are the I’ll call it three big buckets or streams of work to be mindful
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of as you go into this particular period. Um, of course, we’re going to
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spend the bulk of the time talking about different holiday fraud uh related
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trends and things that we’re seeing. Um, and then also around uh chargebacks.
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They are inevitable to some extent. Some of them are in your control, some of
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them not so much. Um so provide some actionable insights on that front and of
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course leave some time for Q&A uh from you all to kind of make sure that we are
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addressing the most pertinent things on your mind.
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Uh so to kick things off, let’s kind of start at that 30,000 foot level uh and
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discuss kind of different departmental considerations um as we move in to this
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holiday season. And so Alexander, I’ll hand it over to you kind of to talk
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through these three different buckets or work streams.
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Absolutely. So, uh, from the 30,000 foot view and as Kevin had mentioned, we are
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heading into what is retail and merchant Super Bowl. And not only is it the Super
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Bowl, but it is the biggest Super Bowl yet. While I was doing reports and and
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looking for insight, I found that in just five days of uh the cyber week, in
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just five days, we are going to uh be seeing $40 billion more in US sales. And
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that’s according to Adobe. Uh as you see there, it’s a 7% increase over 2023.
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It’s just getting bigger and bigger and bigger. And so if we look at this, this
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amount of sales through the lens of fraud, we see that there are numerous
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ways that fraud enters our system. There are numerous ways that abuse enters our
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system. And when we start to lay it all out, we start to define three pieces of
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a of a game plan that we can hop into uh as we move into the season. So the first
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step is going to be to prepare for the season. So starting in October, there
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are different organizations that that cite things like seasonal hiring,
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associated training, maybe adjustments in policies and procedures. There’s
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going to be preparation for an increase in volume. So we need people manning the
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the uh call center calls. We need more people in fulfillment. All of these
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items have fraud related exploits tied with them. We’ll get into that in a
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little bit. When it comes to executing this high volume adds additional stress,
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additional pressure, additional accuracy needs to come into play. And so there
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are systems that come into play uh and adjustments that are made during the
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holiday season to ensure that we are executing effective manner. When it
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comes to responding, that’s where your chargebacks are coming in. And that time
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frame persists all the way through some people say February of 2025. Of course,
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there’s no definitive end date, but uh after the holiday season leading well
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into 20 and 25, we’re going to be dealing with returns. We’re going to be
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dealing with refunds, dealing with chargebacks, both true fraud and
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friendly fraud. And um most importantly, every organization should be taking the
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time to reflect on their performance over the holiday season to ensure that
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they knew exactly what happened and they can prepare best for what happens.
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All right. So, one thing to notice and to to call out like I know the folks on
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the call, we are all dedicated to our I’ll call it fraud craft and making sure
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that all things in this zone are taken care of. We’re mindful of it. We’re
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prepared for it. Um, but also know that fraud impacts the entire organization
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and as the organization goes into this time period, they’re probably worried
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about fulfillment and inventory and promotions and making sure all those
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things are lined up. We are in I’ll call it in an orchestra here where we all
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have our part to play. We all have our different instruments. Um, and we’re
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certainly focused on on that fraud side, but we do know that uh when it comes to
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fraud, it is a missionritical thing for the business. Like I mentioned earlier,
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this is when businesses move into the black. Um, and that’s a a great feeling
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and that’s what you we’re all preparing for, but we don’t want I’ll call it the
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the drag of fraud or it can create that resistance um as we’re trying to onboard
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and get all these good customers through the pipeline. It’s something that’s top
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of mind for us. And so Alexander called out those losses um and now can he can
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step us through a little bit more around what kind of what is the size and scope
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um of what we’re talking about. Sure. So as you see on the left there 48
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billion has been reported as being annual fraud losses in the US. I believe
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it was uh commerce sales are growing nearly $1.2 trillion and 16.2% of that
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is owned by retail. There’s a calculation that happens uh in the fraud
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prevention industry that generally speaking we can rely on 1% of all
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revenue being lost to fraud. 1% of all revenue being lost to fraud. So let’s
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think about that and then let’s also consider two important items. One, any
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report that comes in is incomplete because no matter how you look at it,
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there is fraud that hasn’t been reported. And then two, there are
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different ways to calculate losses. Do we just look at chargebacks? Do we just
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look at the loss of retail um products? Do we just look at um whatever the the
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cost benefit is to customer acquisitions? How far down in the
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granularity uh in the granular details do we get when we’re making these
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calculations to see what fraud and abuse uh impact is actually worth to an
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organization? So when we come when we zoom back out and we say that 1% of all
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revenue is lost to fraud, we have to consider well is it actually two or
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three and our data isn’t telling us that story. So it’s shocking to see that 48
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billion is being accredited fraud as an identified loss because we don’t know
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how big that number actually is.
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>> And I’ll chime in there ju just to say like that’s really around sounds like
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the floor, right? where this is where we actually lost x amount of dollars. Um
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the other auxiliary kind of considerations to think about is things
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like customer acquisition cost and customer insult rate. We’re not going to
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bat a thousand here. I know it’s the the playoffs, so baseball is on the mind
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where we’re not going to be perfect. We’re not going to hit every single kind
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of fraudster here. Uh but and so there are there is going to be consideration
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for the times that we are incorrect. And so something to also be mindful of and
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something I talked about with our clients and even before when I was a
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merchant is what is our customer insult rate? How many times are we wrong? How
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many how are we measuring it? Uh we can maybe in a separate time frame go into
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talk about how we do that in a more data driven way. But it’s not just the bottom
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line. I know we talk about the bottom line a lot. 48 billion is a big number.
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Um but that’s just the floor. And so there is some topline considerations to
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think of as well. That’s a great point. That’s the floor.
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Yeah. And as shocking as these numbers are, uh there’s a lot of room to improve
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accuracy and efficiency 100%. So in terms of we mentioned, hey the
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fraud team, it’s an entire ecosystem here and we are fighting more than just
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fraud. And so uh we have this diagram to kind of illustrate it. So I’ll pass over
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to Alexander to kind of describe what we’re seeing here.
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>> So don’t be overwhelmed. This uh this slide is intended to be overwhelming
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because for all of you leaders out there, this is a small example of what
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our teams are facing when they’re in the trenches, when they’re in the day-to-day
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duties of fighting fraud. On the right hand side, we see a representation of
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the fraud economy, how the fraudsters are operating on the back end, how they
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interact with each other, the methods and the tactics that they use. Down in
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the bottom left we see tool proliferation, how our tools are
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segmented and how our reporting is segmented and siloed and then and then
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actually specifically the teams being siloed up to the top left. All of these
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things come together and create this perfect storm of of of disruption that
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makes things even more difficult to to operate in. And so the reason I brought
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this up is because I wanted to articulate to the leaders out there that
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not only is it enough to fight fraud on its own, but it’s also there are
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challenges needed uh through communication between departments. There
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are a lot of evolving tactics. There’s just a lot to wrap our head through
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within all of this. Uh we’re going to move into the next slide where we where
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we bring up to the forefront the most top of- mind items that are going to be
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present this holiday season.
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>> And so
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>> Oh, sorry. Go ahead.
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>> Go ahead.
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>> I was just gonna I know we had some uh people join here, so I was just going to
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relaunch the poll so uh people could add in their thoughts before we share the
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results. So I’ll just relaunch that now.
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>> Oh, thanks Ela. Um, and then just kind of last comment on the uh the the prior
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slide here and really one thing to be mindful of as and the question I’d ask
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you as the audience is as you go into this season, how often are you syncing
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up with let’s say your marketing team, your customer support team, maybe at
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this point you’ve done some cross trainining for them and so you can also
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hire externally for seasonal support. Um, but really when it comes to siloed
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teams, we feel it a lot more during this season because we’re just flooded with
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these influx of orders, right? And so all the little cracks can become chasms
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essentially to to deal with and that can be uh cause a lot of stress for the
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team. And so what are the things that we’re doing to prepare ourselves? And
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even having a a quick one-on-one with the customer success manager or the
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marketing folks to understand what sort of time timelines are they’re working
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on, how are they preparing for this influx can really benefit not just
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yourself but really your team to make sure that you’re set up set up for
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success and when those flood of orders come in. Inevitably there might be some
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snags along the way but you are working cohesively as a team. So we do break
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down some of those silos. All right. So next up really wanted to
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dive into a little bit more about the fraud impact throughout the holiday
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season and we’re going to hit up kind of five main I’ll call them hot spots um
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with regards to these different zones. So over the next few slides um we’ll
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kind of walk you through what that means. So Alexander, I’ll let you kick
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it off first.
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>> Sure. So although it isn’t holiday specific, we across the entire industry
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have seen a consistent uptick in ATOS uh just across the board. So I feel that
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as we head into the holiday season, this should be an item that’s top of mind
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considerations.
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>> Next up is around gift cards like uh we’ll show some stats around how popular
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they actually are now. Um certainly like I go to Costco, I see a ton of gift
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cards. They’re great deals. I can buy them for myself, but I also buy them for
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others during the holiday season as well. Um, so we’ll definitely want to
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dive into a little bit of that as well.
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>> Payment fraud is on the rise consistently by volume. It’s still
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represents the most losses. So, it’s definitely going to be even more
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impactful during the holiday season when we see those spikes occur.
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>> And then the next one around, I’ll call them customer insults. Like we want to
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understand what our good user behavior looks like. And one thing to keep note
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is look 99 plus% of the population especially during the holiday season
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they are legit and they actually want to spend money. So how can we enable them
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to do that on our platforms and that’s kind of what we want to unlock a little
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bit more
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>> and then we all know that policy first party return refund and then the holiday
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chargebacks uh is is an entire ecosystem unto itself. So, we’re definitely spend
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some time discussing uh some actionable insight around that.
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>> All right. So, let’s break it down. Alexander, take us through some some ATO
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stats here.
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>> Absolutely. So, if we look at the graphs that are on site are on screen, you’re
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going to see that in Q uh in 2023, it started to taper down, but then starting
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earlier this year, Q1, it started to skyrocket. And this has only persisted
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over time. the there are reports all over the internet about compromised
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accounts both from the general public as well as businesses and then streaming
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steaming over to or streaming over to uh financial institutions in different
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industries and so I I want to take a second here to talk about why it’s this
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way what what we can do about it how we can identify it uh why it’s important to
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fraudsters things like that and I feel that what I’ll share is uh and I and I
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speak from experience when I say this uh first and formost Most an account
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takeover is valuable to a fraudster because anything that an account holder
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can do uh if a fraudster gets access to that account now the fraudster can do it
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right and that for a lot of people who are dealing with fraud for a while they
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get that but that’s what it is an established account being taken over by
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a bad actor and then doing bad things on the and so if you draw industry lines
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and you start to look at all of the different ways that an account can be
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valuable you’ll start to see that not all atto result in charge backs. So if
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all of our data stems from chargebacks in order to tell us about our fraud
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performance, that might work for payment, it doesn’t necessarily work for
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ATOS. There are plenty of cases where someone logs into an established
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account, they transact with a stolen payment method, and then yes, it’s
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that’s down the line representative charge. But let’s zoom out and let’s
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look at something like an i gaming platform where somebody where a bad
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actor takes over an established account. They deposit stolen funds and then they
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withdraw it. The deposited funds might be represented there, but if it makes it
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through that now the now the the platform gets to be a bank for the
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fraudster. If we shift focus and we move over to a different type of platform,
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maybe social media, what chargebacks are going to be represented there in 18,
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right? And so if we based on industry lines start to zoom out and evaluate
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what kind of value there is in store for our users, we can start to see where we
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need data in order to indicate to us whether or not uh an ATO is taking
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place, what actions they might seek to take and then we can start to build our
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strategy around.
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>> Awesome. And then really the next section here is around 2FA rate. And so
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I’d say we are like we’re all consumers, right? And on any given day I’d ask like
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how many notifications do you receive? And really the TLDDR or the summary for
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me on this particular section is that we’ve become more and this is a good
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thing more desensitized to account access notifications. So whether it’s
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for work, you might get a I was just in Las Vegas with Alexander for a
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conference. I got a bunch of notifications saying, “Hey, you’re
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logging in from a new zone. Is this you?” “Yes, it’s me.” And it’s
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convenient enough for me. I have my phone on me, of course. And so, the
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barrier to entry as a good consumer um has gone down considerably. And I’d
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argue that the uh that barrier is low enough now to where we’re almost we are
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trained that it’s not a nuisance, but it’s actually more of a positive
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security notification. and I do want my bank or I do want um some of these sites
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that I’m operating on, I do expect them to notify me and I’m not upset about it
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or or anything like that. And so I think in general, at least in the US and
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abroad as well, we’ve become more comfortable with these kind of
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two-factor authentications.
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>> Yeah, I agree. Uh, I know that that uh as far as I’m concerned, I know I get I
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get updates every time Ariana Grande posts a new video and every time Logan
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Paul posts a new video. So, within that stream of notifications, if I’m getting
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getting notified that someone tried to access my account, I know I’m happy to
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interact.
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>> All about prioritization, you know. So, if we’re okay with that, we should be
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okay with, let’s say, a notification from our bank, an e-commerce provider.
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Like I know Amazon Prime Day was just like a few days ago. I got notifications
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for that. Not the highest priority, but I still didn’t mind getting them.
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All right. Um, next up is around physical and digital gift cards. And so,
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um, there are obviously different methods at play here. I think Alexander
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has a great perspective on this, so wanted to let him kind of share some of
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these, uh, stories and actionable recommendations. Sure. So, one method uh
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from my past that um I’d like to share with you guys who are your omni channel
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merchants here who have physical instore gift cards. Uh something to be aware of.
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This picture is one that I took. I went to the store. I saw the rack. Uh and so
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I wanted to bring that to this webinar because this is this is where I would
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this is where I would strike. And the way that it worked was I would go and
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grab one of those stacks and I would take it back to the back to my house.
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So, it would take numerous stacks, just take a whole bunch of gift cards off the
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rack, take it back home, and I would use a razor blade to lift off the scratch
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and the the scratch the scratch off, and I’d write down the information. I create
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this Excel spreadsheet, write it all down, whatever it was. Then, I would
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damage the pin number that was underneath the scratcher, and I would
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replace the scratcher. Then I would take it back to a nice location, go to the
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nicest uh retail store in town that had the same gift cards, and I would go put
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them back on the rack, right? And and what would end up happening is,
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especially around the holiday season, uh people go to these stores, they would
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buy these cards, they would load them up, and then they would be dormant for
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what, 30 days, 45 days, 60 days. I mean, I know I’ve got some gift cards that are
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in my wallet from two years ago that I just never got around to spending,
22:10
right? So, during that time of dormcancy, I would go and check the the
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values on each and every card and I’d figure out how to load it into a wallet
22:19
or how to transact with it, you know, through the website. And as the majority
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of you guys know, the liability of gift cards is such that there’s no rec
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there’s no recourse to take for the consumer to get that value back. Uh once
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it’s gone, it’s gone. And so um as far as quantifying the value of one season
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of this, uh I believe the last time I did it, it was about 20K. It’s about
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$20,000 came from just doing this method, right? And so I want
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to make that aware aware to you. But then in addition to that, I want to
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switch over to digital gift cards. Uh, and this is especially relevant for
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those of you in the digital goods and services um, arena because digital gift
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cards don’t need a shipping address. And a lot of the rules-based systems that
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exist in the world have a heavy tie to shipping addresses or they they bring
23:12
that in very heavily into their into their uh, decision-making process. And
23:17
so with digital delivery of these digital gift cards, that very important
23:22
element is now removed. Well, then what do we replace that with? and it creates
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a whole new type of calculation that we use when we’re trying to make decisions.
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We’re trying to build automation. We’re trying to work within that world. Um,
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yeah. So, I just wanted to bring up that for you. As we see on screen, gift card
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sales are only growing. It’s only a matter of time before this type of
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method uh proliferate or uh propagates throughout the broad industry and
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becomes more and more important that we defend against.
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And the last comment I’ll make out there in um working with a lot of folks in
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this space is one thing that not every business has, but I’d say um it’s
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definitely worthwhile to invest in is the ability to essentially track their
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gift cards better and no store that store those numbers that Alexander was
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talking about. And if you have the ability to disable some of those
24:19
numbers, not everybody does. Um, maybe it’s a little bit late in the game to do
24:23
it now for this holiday season, but something to potentially plan for next
24:27
year is how strong is our gift card game when it comes to tracking and also
24:33
disabling uh cards if needed. All right, so let’s kind of shift gears
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more to the payment fraud side. And so, Alexander, kind of take us through kind
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of what this looks like from your perspective.
24:48
Uh, so payment fraud, right, that’s that’s the number one in all all across
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the board. Payment fraud has been the the number one concern for years and
24:57
years and years and we only expect to see that rise in in Q4 uh as we head
25:02
into the holiday season. So, it’s an old story, but for those of you who might be
25:06
new fraud fighters, let’s go ahead and get into it a little bit. The basis is
25:10
fraudsters are aware that what they want is uh equally available during the
25:16
holiday season. During the holiday season, fraudsters anticipate the fact
25:21
that shipping addresses and devices and the the rules that are in play during
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the rest of the the this the year are are less stringent during the holiday
25:31
season because of course retailers need to open up some of their processes in
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order to allow for people to transact. Uh maybe it’s a new shipping address
25:39
that someone’s never shipped to before. Maybe they’re shipping it to their
25:42
brother in New York when they live in California. Fraudsters anticipate that
25:46
there’s a little bit of leniency given during the holiday season. So, not only
25:50
do fraudsters still want the same stuff, they want to capitalize on holiday
25:54
spending. They want to get as much bang for their buck when they use the stolen,
25:57
you know, payment payment information, but they also know that the rules are
26:02
the rulebased systems are a little bit more laxed during the holiday season. So
26:07
yearover-year this has persisted and grown and will continue to grow. So the
26:12
considerations for this um typically in response as you see below retailers are
26:17
hiring 520,000 new jobs were reported to be hired and I think I pulled that from
26:22
a uh Target Kohl’s and Amazon they reported that and they were hired
26:28
520,000 new jobs just to handle this volume. you know, maybe it’s not all
26:33
fraud related, but to handle this increase in volume, uh, they’re they’re
26:38
expanding their teams tremendously.
26:42
>> And then one thing just to cap on this one is around with those new hires that
26:47
are joining, number one, they’re they’re new, right? And so they may not know all
26:51
the ins and outs and all the in intricacies when it comes to the fraud
26:54
side. I I also say that this is a bit of a a sprint and so at some point fatigue
26:59
could come into play where you do get that onslaught of orders. You want to
27:03
push them through the queue and fulfill those as as quickly as you can. And so
27:07
maybe uh you miss uh one or two transactions uh but you multiply that by
27:12
everybody on the team. And so those things can potentially exacerbate the
27:16
issue. So again, one of those things to be kind of mindful of as we go into um
27:21
this time of year. And so the next one is around uh
27:27
chargeback preparation. And so maybe let’s fast forward a little bit more to
27:32
January 1st or kind of post holiday time. Uh we often call it a holiday
27:37
hangover just because we our work doesn’t end. You definitely have to
27:41
switch kind of mindsets a little bit and more into that that chargeback side. And
27:45
so, Alexander, you want to take us through through through this one?
27:48
>> Sure. Uh, for everybody watching, I want to direct your attention to Q1 of 2024.
27:54
You see that big spike right there? That’s January 2024, right? We might see
28:00
following that that there was a quick fall-off, but we’re anticipating an
28:03
equal spike as we head into Q1, 2025. So January 1, Q1, 2025, we’re dealing not
28:11
only with chargebacks, but we’re dealing with relative friendly fraud
28:14
chargebacks. We’re dealing with relative returns and refunds, which again is
28:19
putting more pressure on those teams that are that are receiving those items,
28:23
that are issuing those refunds, that are doing the verifications. And when it
28:28
comes to uh identifying the difference between true fraud and friendly fraud,
28:34
there are a lot of ways to approach it. We’re going to get into that actually
28:37
when we get into uh the next uh couple of slides. But for this one, I wanted to
28:42
just bring to your attention this is a very significant spike whenever we look
28:46
at what we see in Q1. So just be prepared for that. We’ll get into the
28:50
strategic considerations. And then the next one is um around we
28:56
mentioned the the good users out there and we want to essentially create
29:00
scenarios that can customers can quickly like there’s flash sales and all those
29:05
things to take advantage of. They’re in they’re the consumer mindset shifts
29:09
right they’re in spend spend spend mode and so really we want to make sure that
29:14
accuracy is is top of mind. And so, Alexander, kind of walk us through your
29:19
your take here on when it comes to things like verified users and and these
29:23
spending habits.
29:24
>> Yeah, I didn’t want the whole webinar to be doom and gloom, so I wanted to end on
29:28
a high note for for these uh for these trends. Uh mobile transactions are going
29:32
to represent half more than half of all online purchases on the holiday season.
29:37
Now, this does have some considerations to make when we’re dealing with data,
29:40
when we’re trying to identify what it takes to be accurate because these these
29:44
users are going to be, you know, moving across the country. They’re going to be
29:47
going out of country, still spending to buy their gifts for their loved ones and
29:51
gifts for their friends. Um, but but their behaviors are going to change,
29:55
right? And so, what we want to do is consciously meet our customer where they
30:00
are. Understanding that half of the people that responded to this poll are
30:04
going to be traveling. We need to anticipate that uh they’re they’re not
30:10
going to be in the same geoloccation. They might not be on the same IP
30:13
address. They might not be there, but one thing they do take with them is
30:17
their phone. Right? So device intelligence becomes uh even more
30:21
important during the holiday season if we’re looking to avoid customer insult
30:25
and if we’re looking to be as uh customer driven as possible. We want to
30:30
anticipate uh their actions and nurture them uh through the customer experience
30:35
journey. So it’s all good news by volume. Uh but we just want to make sure
30:39
that we meet them where they are and anticipate uh what their spending habits
30:43
might be.
30:45
>> So as you get into that that process, one thing I’ll ask like you the audience
30:49
member is let’s say you do have some rules in place. What considerations are
30:55
you looking at and analyzing on how much do you want to lift that piece? So maybe
31:01
you have some velocity checks, maybe you have some dollar caps or pound caps,
31:05
euro caps, etc. on transactions that you might want to set up for uh two-factor
31:11
authentication or manual review, all those things. What increase is that
31:17
going to look like look like for your your team? So you know that you can only
31:21
review let’s say manually x amount of orders per day or per week given that
31:26
potential increase in volume. What is that going to look like with the rules
31:30
that you have in place today? And that’s really where rules are great. I I view
31:34
them as a backs stop. They are definitely a key cog in that fraud
31:38
stack. But if you are using that as your primary kind of defense against these
31:43
these these volumes, you might the the the penalty of that or the the downside
31:48
of that is that you might have to invest more in human resources which can be
31:51
expensive as well to to to to take on that blow of extra uh transactions. And
31:57
I mean no secret that’s why AI and ML can be your mechanical advantage there.
32:02
So also work with your either internal team or your vendor on how we’re tuning
32:07
the models in preparation for this time of the year. Like you should absolutely
32:10
tune your uh rules uh but also how are we tuning our models and in this in this
32:16
preparation over the next kind of several weeks.
32:20
All right. So let’s kind of shift gears a little bit to disputes. Um now it’s a
32:25
little bit of the other side of the coin here. Um, but there’s always these
32:29
different elements to consider uh when we get into that mix. And so, Alexander,
32:34
kind of walk us through when you look at this, I’ll call it a bubble chart. What
32:38
do you see here? And and why does it actually matter?
32:42
>> So, this really set sets the stage for everything chargebacks get to leverage
32:46
and everything that that predates the chargeback coming into effect. Right? So
32:52
for me when I look at it at an effective fraud prevention strategy it’s comprised
32:56
of many elements. Uh identity might be one. Consider everywhere where where a
33:02
user is interacting with your platform and transacting with identity
33:05
information. Meaning that identity information is available at any touch
33:09
point. So we think about account creation. Then we also think about
33:12
login. And then we think about uh we have listed here device and behavior.
33:16
Well how is that customer interacting with your platform? What pages are they
33:19
loading? Where are they looking? what are they searching? Then we have the
33:23
transaction of course. Then we have the fulfillment across the entire journey.
33:27
We have all these different elements wherein a centric uh a central identity
33:31
uh is being presented to us in different data points. And I feel that that is
33:35
super important whenever we’re building up our strategy
33:39
in preparation for responding to chargebacks because every user whether
33:42
it’s a good user or a bad actor every user is interacting with the platform
33:47
and presenting this information to us. It’s our job to take it and understand
33:52
it and see the whole story there. And so that’s why I bring this up. One
33:56
important thing to note is for the rem for the for the rest of the year, one
34:01
set of rules, one set of insight, one set of processes is going to be
34:05
effective heading into the holiday season. As we mentioned up above, we
34:09
have this increase in volume. We have holiday specific exploits and trends.
34:13
We’ve got, you know, half of our customer base is travel. we’ve got
34:17
digital goods and services that are being purchased uh you know at a at a
34:22
higher rate and all of these different things come into play and so during the
34:26
holiday season want to take what is a fundamental fraud strategy we want to
34:30
adjust it to work with the holiday uh with the holiday season so a few of the
34:34
the callouts that I would say are if you are you I think Kevin you just mentioned
34:38
this if you are using a rules-based system you’re going to want to go in now
34:42
and try to work with them to fine-tune it for the holiday season based on the
34:46
behaviors you’re expecting from both good users and bad actors. You’re also
34:51
going to uh to want to anticipate um where on your platform you don’t have
34:59
data that can support potential disputes uh in your repres representments down
35:04
the line. So, it’s a whole big picture, but once you get that ball rolling, it’s
35:10
something you can chip away at, be effective,
35:13
and then uh all of it will feed uh into successful win rates for your target.
35:20
>> And then one thing to note, and as you kind of prep and audit your your rules,
35:23
let’s say, the rules that you had in August will not be as effective as they
35:29
are in November uh just because of the change in behavior from our consumers.
35:34
And so that’s the mindset that I go into it with of knowing that the behavior
35:39
changed and what is it’s not quite the new normal but what is the holiday
35:43
normal and what is that going to look like for my team when I think about
35:47
manual review hit rate block rate all those different types of things and then
35:52
as we work cross functionally one of the things to kind of keep in mind is how do
35:56
we talk with our teams uh cross functional teams that is to prepare them
36:01
for these things and so that’s really where the synergy can happen as well.
36:08
All right, so let’s talk about holiday related kind of data changes and so um
36:13
kind of Alexander walk us through what that looks like uh when it comes to
36:17
different user behavior.
36:19
>> Sure. So, uh on the different slides previously, we’ve kind of hinted at a
36:24
couple of different changes. I want to bring it all together on this one and
36:27
really highlight for for you guys, the teams out there, what changes you’re
36:32
going to want to consider. um when making what what data changes and how to
36:37
use that change uh in determining what your processing should be. So first and
36:41
foremost the shipping address becomes much less important and this is
36:45
definitely a call out over to you digital goods and services who never
36:48
deal with the shipping address or who very rarely deal with the shipping
36:51
address. Right? So for e-commerce and retail the shipping address becomes much
36:55
much less relevant. Right? When we go back, you know, to uh early stages of
37:01
fraud prevention strategy development at a e-commerce retailer, what we see is we
37:06
see the AVS being leveraged very heavily. Then we see the billing and the
37:09
shipping address matching and that that kind of a a rule starting off uh is a
37:14
very fundamental rule when you’re first building up your first fraud program,
37:18
right? This completely breaks that because so many users are not going to
37:23
be shipping to their own address. You know, Grandma Susan is sending sending
37:29
the new big box uh the new big box toy over to Billy in Florida, right? She’s
37:35
in California. So, no longer is that relationship going to be so so rigid,
37:40
right? So, let’s consider that. Second is the spending behaviors. I just spoke
37:43
about Grandma Susan sending it off to to little boy Jimmy. Uh PS5s going out. I
37:49
remember that was the hot one a few years ago and still actually is
37:52
persisting to be. The spending behaviors of established accounts are going to
37:58
raise during this year. So behaviors are not going to be the same as they had
38:02
been throughout the throughout the guess rest of the year. Then there’s velocity
38:06
on top of that. Right? So consider that the spending behavior is going to change
38:11
dramatically. The shipping addresses are going to change dramatically. The value
38:15
of each order is going to change dramatically. And then combine that with
38:19
the 52% uh metric of travel this year,
38:23
geoloccation. They’re no longer transacting from from an area that’s in
38:28
proximity to their billing address. They’re in Florida with a billing
38:32
address in California sending a package to New York. With rules-based systems,
38:37
this is going to look suspicious. It’s going to raise a lot of flags. It’s
38:40
going to inundate your your uh analysis, your team, your teams of analysis uh
38:45
analysts, sorry. And it’s going to be, as Kevin said, the rules in August are
38:52
going to be much less effective in November. Then the last thing I want to
38:56
touch down on, there’s a lot of first-time users are going to be popping
38:58
up during the holiday season, right? So, I might not have ever gone to, you know,
39:04
some fancy clothing store specifically, but I know that my sister-in-law is
39:09
really crazy about that particular jacket. So, I go make an account there.
39:13
I’ve never been there before. I’m here for this specific item and I’m sending
39:17
it over to her. Imagine what that looks like in the data that’s being aggregated
39:22
and what can we do to be confident and effective in our
39:27
decisions moving forward.
39:32
>> All right. So, this next section is really around if again if we fast
39:36
forward to the January 1 time frame, um that’s when your charge ducks are going
39:41
to come in typically, right? Like people are going to get their credit card
39:44
statements post holiday. They might uh recognize most of those transactions.
39:48
They might not recognize some. And so these next three tips here really to
39:54
help ensure that yeah, you’re going to get some chargebacks. What are some ways
39:57
to lighten the load either for your team and actually for consumers as well? And
40:02
so for the first one, really ensuring your business name is properly uh
40:07
labeled on these line items. And it sounds kind of silly, but I remember
40:11
when I uh worked at Square and I ran the fraud team over there, oftentimes and we
40:15
represented a ton of micro merchants and SMB style businesses as well. And the
40:21
line item might have said Alexander’s beans as the line item or Alexander and
40:28
I, as a consumer, 30 days later, I’m like, what? What is this Alexander
40:32
thing? I don’t recognize it. It’s for 100 bucks. I’m going to issue a
40:35
chargeback or dispute on it. Now, if Alexander had taken the time to say like
40:40
this is Alexander’s like coffee beans or been a bit more descriptive on what is
40:44
there, um that could have avoided that. It’s not even friendly fraud. That’s
40:49
just a um unknown unknown charge. And so there are things that you can help
40:53
yourself. So talk to let’s say your payments team in this case to see what
40:57
does that line item description look like. Depending on the the processor you
41:02
use, you might get I won’t call it a cheat, but uh the character limit that
41:06
you’re allowed might be extended a little bit. Sometimes you can you can be
41:09
a bit creative with um sneaking in a a URL or something where if the consumer
41:14
is looking at their credit card statement and let’s say online, they can
41:18
click for more information and then let’s say it leads to Alexander’s Coffee
41:21
Bean website’s like, “Oh yes, I shipped that to my sister-in-law. This is good.”
41:25
And so you can do those things to avoid uh some of those chargebacks that you
41:29
might have to work later on. Um we didn’t talk too much about return fraud,
41:35
but it’s definitely a uh a thing. And also it can definitely behoove you to
41:42
list out and be clear about what your consumer what what your refund policy
41:46
is. Sometimes uh on websites uh they might be nonrefundable just because it’s
41:52
a flash sale or something like that. oftentimes businesses this time of year,
41:57
they extend their refund window. So maybe I buy something on Black Friday.
42:02
Uh maybe typically it’s a 30-day return window, but for holidays, maybe it gets
42:06
extended to 60. Being clear about what that is for your consumers, um that can
42:10
actually make them feel more comfortable buying from you because like, oh, I
42:14
can’t do 30 days because what if Susan doesn’t like that jacket now it’s a
42:18
60-day. These are all things that can help you number one make customers
42:22
understand what they’re getting into. Number two, make them feel more
42:25
confident ultimately in buying that item. Um and also and this is where the
42:30
last one is around where businesses still shocks me a little bit sometimes.
42:35
U but when it comes to what data the consumer is actually sending you often
42:41
times the customer success team or the marketing team they actually already
42:45
collect these data points but they’re not necessarily exposed to the fraud
42:49
team. And this is where silo teams and technology is going to come kind of come
42:52
into play where the systems don’t talk to each other. And so unfortunately the
42:57
onus can kind of lead back up to that fraud team to have to connect those
43:00
dots, but those dots and those breadcrumbs are there. And so definitely
43:05
do take the time to poke around with with other teams to see like, hey, what
43:10
details are we already collecting? We don’t want to create any more friction
43:14
for our consumers at the end of the day. Like that’s going to create kind of more
43:17
downstream impact on that front. But if we’re already collecting that data for
43:20
other purposes for the business, how can we leverage it to make our our team’s
43:25
job easier when it comes to representment and fighting those
43:29
chargebacks? Because if the bill ship do match uh IP, device info, all that
43:34
stuff, we have previous transaction history, all those work in our favor
43:38
when it comes to winning these chargebacks. Like yes, you want a
43:41
kick-ass fraud stack and system up front to block and deter all those chargebacks
43:46
that are coming in. You are going to get some like like I said, we’re not going
43:50
to bat a thousand here, but when they come in, if there are either
43:54
opportunistic fraudsters out there, there might be some friendly fraud out
43:57
there, some return fraud out there, all those screenshots and all those data
44:01
points will definitely increase your ability to kind of push back and fight
44:05
back. Um, in that regard, I think this might be the last one we
44:11
touch on is around uh reporting. So kind of Alexander, take us through like what
44:15
are the specific KPIs that you would expect a team uh to look for and monitor
44:19
for during this time of year. There’s a lot. Right. So, this is in my
44:26
opinion, this is the most fun, right? I live in data. I love taking data to to
44:31
extract action. I love telling picture. I love painting pictures and telling
44:34
stories with data. And this is where everything is, right? And so, when we go
44:39
back and we review the data of the of the holiday season, we’re going to see
44:43
which methods did we properly anticipate we were going to run into. We can begin
44:48
to see what iterations there are. When we think about payment fraud, the big
44:53
bad wolf, the payment fraud, that has one course of action leading to that
44:56
checkout form. Checkout form has to be hit. The thing that I want to draw
45:01
attention to is that ATO’s don’t necessarily have to end in a
45:06
transaction. Plenty do. So, don’t let me don’t let me undermine them, but not
45:10
all. Right? And for that reason, we need to understand what you what fraudsters
45:14
are doing when they access these established accounts, what their
45:18
behaviors are. And the truth of the matter is this. No one has the
45:23
information available to your organization. No one has your
45:27
organization’s specific performance. We do a great job uh at SIFT bringing
45:33
bringing additional data into our models and providing that to our users, but
45:38
nobody knows your company better than you. So this is the best opportunity for
45:43
you to see what your performance was in order for you to identify what iterated
45:47
what iterations are attacking your platform, what you need to do next, what
45:51
you need to consider next holiday season, what adjustments you maybe went
45:55
overzealous on and under. I would definitely be measuring uh the
45:59
chargeback rate. I would definitely be measuring the influx of returns and
46:03
refunds. And I would definitely be measuring uh the the volume of items
46:08
that came in and the behaviors that came in uh associated with all the
46:12
chargebacks so we can beat out bad actors.
46:16
>> And just to finish up on that piece, yes. Hey, we got to get those metrics in
46:21
place. What is the so what on this one is right now I definitely recommend
46:27
establishing what those targets could be or should be with your crossunctional
46:31
peers. And so knowing that you are going to have a higher uh approval rate just
46:37
because of the influx of good transactions, what is that target that
46:40
you’re shooting for? So inevitably when some con some end consumer writes in,
46:45
calls in uh posts on social media about, hey company X, why didn’t you send me uh
46:52
my stuff? I I’m very upset. That particular post might make it make
46:59
it might make its way to the customer success team. it might make its way to
47:02
the CEO or whoever on at the company. And it’s important, I think, for you.
47:07
It’s not about pushing back per se, but it’s establishing
47:12
the expectation of we’re going into the holiday season. Here’s what we’re
47:16
expecting and our targets when it comes to these different rates. And so, we’re
47:20
again, we’re not going to be perfect. So when a end consumer calls in or
47:25
complains about some service or item not being uh delivered and maybe it is
47:30
because they were in fact blocked by the fraud engine, can you go back to that
47:36
peer or kind of to the cross functional leadership team and say yes, we’re going
47:41
to make it right for this one particular user, but by the way, we’re currently
47:45
below the targets that we set back in October um for this time of And so it’s
47:53
it’s a defense mechanism to let leadership know that your team is
47:58
actually still doing its job and we’re under our thresholds and we’re within
48:01
ban. Again, we’re not going to be perfect, but having that conversation
48:05
now will make that future conversation because it’s inevitably going to happen
48:10
much much easier. And so it’s not like the world’s on fire, firefighting drill.
48:14
It’s like no, we understood that this this could happen. we set our metrics
48:18
for it and therefore that conversation becomes much more matterof fact and then
48:23
you move on and you keep going and so h planting those seeds now uh can avoid
48:28
future kind of pitfalls down the line. All right so just to to wrap things up
48:36
before we get into any kind of uh questions here kind of take us through
48:40
kind of what are like the the highlights here that we really want the audience to
48:44
to understand. Sure. Holiday fraud prevention is a team effort, right? We
48:49
know that fraud fraud propagates throughout the entire customer
48:52
experience journey. We know that all teams need to work together in tandem in
48:56
order to understand what the story of fraud methods are, especially with ATO’s
49:00
being as prevalent as they are. Fraud prevention is a team effort. So, let’s
49:05
get together. Let’s collaborate between departments. Let’s let’s let’s get this
49:10
uh let’s get this going well. Right. Uh number two, ATOS’s payment fraud and
49:14
abuse are top reported methods. It’s just true. Uh with the amount of cyber
49:20
security breaches that take that take place, um login information is just
49:24
flooding into the marketplace. Fraudsters are taking advantage of that.
49:27
They’re accessing accounts. The impact and the damage that is done uh across
49:32
industry lines looks different, you know, based on the industry, based on
49:36
the functionality available to accounts. So, we need to be on top of that when it
49:41
comes to payment fraud. It’s just persisting. It’s a sad thing, but it’s
49:44
persisting. And then abuse, your first party fraud, returns, and refunds. Let’s
49:48
keep that front of mind as we deal with these uh returns and refunds uh at
49:53
accounting and in fulfillment, receiving those. Let’s put our processes in place
49:57
to make sure that we’re we’re only accepting what we should, but that we
50:00
are running through them at a at a process that’s good for our users, our
50:04
customers. Data. Remember, your your customers are doing different things
50:10
during the holiday season than they would otherwise. Your good users are
50:13
traveling. Your good users are shipping uh are shipping packages to addresses
50:18
unassociated with their account. You are experiencing new behaviors from good
50:26
verified users and you’re experiencing an influx of attacks from bad actors.
50:33
So, make sure that you have your data uh set up uh appropriately to track for
50:37
these changes. And again, like I said before, make sure you’re meeting your
50:40
customers where they are. Allow them to be comfortable when they interact with
50:44
your platform. Then, most importantly, don’t let the stress get to you. It’s
50:48
the holiday season. Let it be the holiday season. Be be happy. Make sure
50:53
you eat your food and have a good time. Smile, laugh, and love.
50:59
>> Sage advice. I know certainly in leading my own teams in the past during this
51:03
time like it is a high stress high stakes time of year um I know a lot of
51:07
the teams like this shout out as just being a former fraud analyst here where
51:12
you are going to have to defer some of your stuff. It sucks to kind of have to
51:15
work the day after Christmas and um everyone’s doing their shopping thing.
51:19
You could still do your online shopping thing too but yeah you’re you’re working
51:22
and doing your thing as well. um if you can uh sometimes you kind of defer those
51:28
uh time off like you get more time off during during uh Q1 or January. Um but
51:33
definitely take time to appreciate uh the team that you’re working on and let
51:38
them know like you know I’ve done plenty of things just to make them feel
51:41
appreciated. I know many of us are kind of hybrid and remote now um but having
51:46
that team camaraderie as you enter in this time is uber important. So, um,
51:52
keep that in mind as well. And so, with that said, I know we’re running up
51:56
against time. I just want to say thank you, uh, for taking the time out to chat
52:00
today. Maybe Eli, if we do have some, uh, customer or, um, uh, audience
52:06
questions, let us have maybe one or two and we can close it out from there.
52:11
>> Sounds good. Uh, yeah, got a couple good ones here. Um
52:16
Charles asks uh what do you think will be the leading fraud method uh in 2025?
52:23
>> 2025. Okay. Is that you want to give it a go?
52:28
>> Yeah. I feel that with the abundance of identity information flooding into the
52:33
the marketplace, I feel that more platforms outside of merchant retailers
52:38
are going to begin to feel the impact of fraud even more than they have. So I
52:44
feel like for example crypto crypto wallets and fintexs, credit unions and
52:51
banks, they are all going to start seeing more fraud on their platforms
52:56
than before. And when you couple that with the fact that so many credit unions
53:00
who are who have historically been very archaic in their in their systems,
53:04
they’re they’ve been well set for a long while. They’re digitizing their
53:09
platforms. I feel that as we head into 25, we’re going to see more identity
53:14
centric fraud taking place uh in the ecosystem.
53:20
>> Awesome. Um I think let’s do one more here. Uh Becca asks, “What’s the appeal
53:26
of ATO from the fraud service perspective?”
53:30
So yeah, that’s something I would really like to to to really drill home here is
53:36
um there are a lot of conversations about how ATtos affect a platform and
53:40
the conversations lead to how do I calculate the damage that ATOs are
53:44
causing to me, right? And I think I mentioned it a little bit earlier um but
53:48
I’ll drill in here. It it not all ATOs are going to be represented in
53:52
chargebacks. Not all of them. Sure, plenty of them, but not all of them. And
53:57
so what’s very important is to identify within your specific organization and
54:01
then within your industry what are actions a a an established user can take
54:08
part in and why would a fraudster want to be able to do that. Right? So one
54:12
example that I always give is the ability to deposit funds into an account
54:17
and then withdraw those funds later on down the road. Right? So they they they
54:22
establish an account using or they they um take over an established account
54:26
through an ATO. They start to deposit funds from multiple different
54:30
instruments and then they wait or they transact or they they do whatever they
54:34
need to do to ultimately funnel it off of the platform. This benefits the
54:38
fraudster because no there’s there’s a level of insulation from the fraudster
54:43
because they’re using that established account. It’s tied to somebody else. So
54:47
any of that information, any of those bad actions are going to be tied to that
54:51
person, not the fraudster. Right? So that’s one extreme example. But if you
54:55
move over to social media, what if someone’s trying to pedal some goods,
54:59
you know, to a fake Amazon storefront, that’s not going to be represented in a
55:03
chargeback, but that’s an extremely damaging atto because now that
55:07
celebrity, that famous person, uh, is no longer going to be happy with that
55:11
platform. And then that bridges the gap over to customer satisfaction. Customers
55:15
go where they feel safe, right? And so if people’s accounts are being taken
55:19
over, regardless of what the chargebacks say, customers are not going to be too
55:24
happy with that. And with customers being the first and foremost uh customer
55:29
satisfaction being first and foremost in our in our operations, we need to make
55:33
sure that they feel safe and that they feel that their accounts are secure. So,
55:37
I just really wanted to drill down on the damage of ATO’s is represented
55:41
differently in a lot of different ways and it’s not necessarily tied to
55:45
chargebacks.
55:48
>> Sounds like a potential future kind of blog or webinar that we can dive into as
55:52
well.
55:53
>> Let’s do it.
55:54
>> Uh well, just to wrap up, thank you again for taking the time out of chat.
55:58
Really, our goal was to make sure that you got some actionable insights as you
56:02
prepare to go into this time of year. It’s an exciting time, like no doubt. We
56:06
just want to make sure that you’re locked and ready to go uh for for this
56:10
ride. And so again, thank you for taking the time out to chat with us today and
56:14
kind of walk through these different scenarios. Have a great day everybody.
56:18
Take care.